View the math, on U.S. COVID mortality.
Here’s the methodology we’ve been publishing.
Every day, we awake to check the new updated number of deaths.
Then calculate the percent change daily, and the 5 day moving average of that percent-change.
From here, can chart the 5-day moving avg of the %-change in U.S. mortality, and can forecast when this is expected to end, based on the current trend.
Currently – slated to end the U.S. deaths around first week of May 2020.
With 30k deaths total.
At 12k deaths today – – sadly, another 20k deaths are forecasted, at the current trend…
A few updates have been published.
Economic impact will last much longer than the health effects. This is a prime opp for a 'Fed backed job guarantee', at least temporarily, for people from low income, low wealth families. https://t.co/LtpJE1tA48 pic.twitter.com/mvtE3X7okk
— pH14 Plan (@pH14Plan) April 6, 2020
If Americans are effective with our interventions, nationally, the trend will shift more favorably.
If we’re ineffective with our interventions, nationally, the trend will shift more negatively.
Of great importance, are finding the health disparities, and zooming in to CLOSE those and offer EFFECTIVE interventions.
In big cities, black Americans are much more likely to DIE from this, per the preliminary data being discussed.
In Milwaukee and Chicago – 3x more likely
In Louisiana – 2x more likely
In Detroit – 2.8x more likely
Meanwhile, black Americans are 63% more concerned about this as A MAJOR AND SERIOUS PERSONAL HEALTH THREAT, as of March 10th survey by Pew.
Anyone who suggests that black Americans aren’t “awake” to this and its impacts on their families is being disrespectful, dishonest, and is distracting America from the groups who are measurably and actually the LEAST awake to the seriousness of this issue.
National solutions are great.
But these don’t address disparities, which becomes a problem if the rising tide doesn’t actually lift all the boats.
(Update 4/11/20) Similarly, anyone who suggests the racial mortality disparities are attributed to differences in hand washing, social distancing, or ‘alcohol’, are willfully and woefully neglecting to acknowledge that Black Americans have 3x COVID-19 mortality because their bodies bore the cost of making this country Great, and since remained an oppressed lower caste, causing chronic diseases.
Please, don’t blame black Americans for the pains of injustice placed upon them, please.
What then are the interventions to implement both immediately and long-term to address the racial disparities, that this pandemic exposes????
There are several – – and a few are being discussed, but none are being wholly implemented, at a programmatic level.
Staying at home is impossible, if people don’t have food.
Some American families can’t stack up on food, if they have low income and low wealth.
Net worth of your typical black American family in Boston is $8.
Literally – – $8 net worth just isn’t enough to wealth to stockpile food during a pandemic.
Why, then do black Americans not have enough wealth to stockpile during a pandemic???
In short… Generations of pay gaps – – based on being a member of the “higher” races vs “lower” races.
Families in the “higher” races are generally and historically given greater access financial capital.
Families in the “lower” races are generally obstructed from accessing equivalent amounts of financial capital, amidst comparable qualifications. It’s always been this way in America…
As such, there’s a 40x wealth gap by race.
Among college grads, there’s a 5x gap in who gets access to income needed to repay loan debts.
In places like DC, there’s a 6x gap in who is given income for their labor services.
Herein, by disproportionately obstructing “lower” races’ access to financial capital over generations, it leads to greater health disparities today.
It’s the compounded affect of what the Fed Reserve calls “intergenerational transfers” that make the difference in what we’re seeing today.
The solution to this, is either a political one or a non-political one.
Per the political solution to addressing historically multi-generational economic hardship… one could easily propose a Fed backed cash bailout of black American families to offset the generations of monetary easing that favored ‘higher races’ over the last century.
But there’s little reason to believe this would be approved by the voting majority of lawmakers. In a democracy where either votes or money matter, politics and political solutions, mathematically will not and cannot favor an economically disadvantaged minority group. It’s statistically impossible.
Much greater faith can be placed in a non-political intervention for closing racial wealth gaps — a community based solution…
Adopting a wealthy ‘mindset’ may be critical, if for no other reason, than to survive pandemics and other emergencies. Some even will argue, the only purpose of wealth, is to survive emergencies.
Contemplate principles, for preparing economically disadvantaged families, for a new infectious world.
The choice to sponsor others within a community based economic development model, becomes a personal choice each person can make — and the legal infrastructure is already in place. It certainly doesn’t require any act of Congress to initiate these efforts.
Beyond mere ‘cash’…
This COVID-19 pandemic clearly has higher mortality in people with chronic diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension and obesity.
One of the most effective and most scalable ways to drastically improve health and reduce chronic disease, is to cut out ALL animal products from the diet, per decades of scientific, peer-reviewed literature, affirmed by thousands of health scientists globally.
A diet we’ve coined as the “beefing” diet, can reduce risk of hypertension and diabetes and other common causes of mortality such as cancer, immune system decline, and pulmonary diseases.
Beans and greens
Fruits and veggies
Nuts and berries
Grains and water
Herbs and exercise
Where are the recommendations to consume this ‘beefing’ diet AS A MEANS TO protect black Americans with highest risk of mortality during this pandemic, FROM mortality after infection?
Again, this ‘beefing’ diet reflects personal choices each individual can legally choose to improve their chances of survival before, during, and after global outbreaks.
Within multi-cultural nations (such as America), racial health disparities are being exposed by a global pandemic.
As a fact, there is no published report of black Americans having gone to Wuhan in the past year. Meanwhile, black Americans have higher rates of mortality from this, among other racial groups of Americans.
In the absence of political interventions, there are some very personal choices individuals can make to compassionately close these standing and stagnant socioeconomic gaps.